Wednesday, August 17, 2005
There is a great site for those who are addicted to polls and polling (and let's face it... anyone who says polling doesn't matter is lying to you - otherwise polling institutions would be out of business), and I found some very interesting information today.
Yes... But WILL They Remember?
On it's face value, it's simply a 50-state survey of Bush's approval rating. When you see statistics like California giving Bush a 62% disapproval rating, or true Blue New York doing the same, it's not really a huge surprise or newsworthy.
Here's what I found interesting - NINETEEN "Red" States - those who voted for Bush in 2004 - currently show a majority disapproving of President Bush. I've only included states where there is a clear majority disapproving - ties don't count.
Just to clarify, and to give you a sense of where these statistics are coming from, here are the states as I count them (with highlighted states of particular interest):
Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, FLORIDA, GEORGIA, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, OHIO, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia.
Noting what I've highlighted, you probably know where I'm going, but I'll go anyway. Of course there are hundreds of other factors to take into consideration, but these nineteen Red states constitute a staggering 191 electoral votes in 2008. Forget New York's 31 electoral votes, or California's 55 votes... if you're counting, those two states, combined with the RED states, gets you over 270. Check the math, if you like.
Given the makeup of the listed states, as well, it becomes clear that anyone suggesting the South is unattainable for Democrats in 2008 better think twice.
simplistic? Absolutely. Will the Democrats make it mind-numbingly difficult, though? More than likely.
Posted by FleshPresser at 6:02 PM /