Tuesday, November 04, 2008


HISTORY IN THE MAKING



Regardless of your affiliation, History will be made today! GET OUT AND VOTE!!!

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Posted by FleshPresser at 8:52 AM /


Thursday, August 28, 2008


Eight Is Enough


OK, so it's probably not going to measure up to the speech whose 45th anniversary is celebrated today, and maybe people will question the pillars behind him when he speaks, but make NO mistake... tonight is a historic night.

And for those of you who believe that Barack Obama has no plan to bring about the change he is talking about, LISTEN CLOSELY tonight as he spells it out for you... once again. And if you choose not to listen, you can read it right here, before it even comes out of his mouth in Denver. Here are excerpts from his historic speech to be presented tonight:
“Four years ago, I stood before you and told you my story – of the brief union between a young man from Kenya and a young woman from Kansas who weren’t well-off or well-known, but shared a belief that in America, their son could achieve whatever he put his mind to.

“It is that promise that has always set this country apart – that through hard work and sacrifice, each of us can pursue our individual dreams but still come together as one American family, to ensure that the next generation can pursue their dreams as well.

“It is why I stand here tonight. Because for two hundred and thirty two years, at each moment when that promise was in jeopardy, ordinary men and women – students and soldiers, farmers and teachers, nurses and janitors -- found the courage to keep it alive.

“We meet at one of those defining moments – a moment when our nation is at war, our economy is in turmoil, and the American promise has been threatened once more.

“Tonight, more Americans are out of work and more are working harder for less. More of you have lost your homes and more are watching your home values plummet. More of you have cars you can’t afford to drive, credit card bills you can’t afford to pay and tuition that is beyond your reach

“These challenges are not all of government’s making. But the failure to respond is a direct result of a broken politics in Washington and the failed presidency of George W. Bush.

“America, we are better than these last eight years. We are a better country than this.”

***

“This moment – this election – is our chance to keep, in the 21st century, the American promise alive. Because next week, in Minnesota, the same party that brought you two terms of George Bush and Dick Cheney will ask this country for a third. And we are here because we love this country too much to let the next four years look just like the last eight. On November 4th, we must stand up and say: “Eight is enough.”

“Now let there be no doubt. The Republican nominee, John McCain, has worn the uniform of our country with bravery and distinction, and for that we owe him our gratitude and respect. And next week, we’ll also hear about those occasions when he’s broken with his party as evidence that he can deliver the change that we need.

“But the record’s clear: John McCain has voted with George Bush ninety percent of the time. Senator McCain likes to talk about judgment, but really, what does it say about your judgment when you think George Bush was right more than ninety percent of the time? I don’t know about you, but I’m not ready to take a ten percent chance on change.”

***
“You see, we Democrats have a very different measure of what constitutes progress in this country.

“We measure progress by how many people can find a job that pays the mortgage; whether you can put away a little extra money at the end of each month so that you can someday watch your child receive her diploma. We measure progress in the 23 million new jobs that were created when Bill Clinton was President – when the average American family saw its income go up $7,500 instead of down $2,000 like it has under George Bush.

“We measure the strength of our economy not by the number of billionaires we have or the profits of the Fortune 500, but by whether someone with a good idea can take a risk and start a business, or whether the waitress who lives on tips can take a day off to look after a sick kid without losing her job – an economy that honors the dignity of work.

“The fundamentals we use to measure economic strength are whether we are living up to that fundamental promise that has made this country great – a promise that is the only reason I am standing here tonight.”

***

“That’s the promise we need to keep. That’s the change we need right now. So let me spell out exactly what that change would mean if I am President.
.
“Change means a tax code that doesn’t reward the lobbyists who wrote it, but the American workers and small businesses who deserve it.

Unlike John McCain, I will stop giving tax breaks to corporations that ship our jobs overseas, and I will start giving them to companies that create good jobs right here in America.

I will eliminate capital gains taxes for the small businesses and the start-ups that will create the high-wage, high-tech jobs of tomorrow.

I will cut taxes – cut taxes – for 95% of all working families. Because in an economy like this, the last thing we should do is raise taxes on the middle-class.

“And for the sake of our economy, our security, and the future of our planet, I will set a clear goal as President: in ten years, we will finally end our dependence on oil from the Middle East.

“Washington has been talking about our oil addiction for the last thirty years, and John McCain has been there for twenty-six of them. In that time, he’s said no to higher fuel-efficiency standards for cars, no to investments in renewable energy, no to renewable fuels. And today, we import triple the amount of oil as the day that Senator McCain took office.

“Now is the time to end this addiction, and to understand that drilling is a stop-gap measure, not a long-term solution. Not even close.

“As President, I will tap our natural gas reserves, invest in clean coal technology, and find ways to safely harness nuclear power. I’ll help our auto companies re-tool, so that the fuel-efficient cars of the future are built right here in America. I’ll make it easier for the American people to afford these new cars. And I’ll invest $150 billion over the next decade in affordable, renewable sources of energy – wind power and solar power and the next generation of biofuels; an investment that will lead to new industries and five million new jobs that pay well and can’t ever be outsourced.”

***

“We are the party of Roosevelt. We are the party of Kennedy. So don’t tell me that Democrats won’t defend this country. Don’t tell me that Democrats won’t keep us safe. The Bush-McCain foreign policy has squandered the legacy that generations of Americans -- Democrats and Republicans – have built, and we are to restore that legacy.

“As Commander-in-Chief, I will never hesitate to defend this nation, but I will only send our troops into harm’s way with a clear mission and a sacred commitment to give them the equipment they need in battle and the care and benefits they deserve when they come home.

I will end this war in Iraq responsibly, and finish the fight against al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan. I will rebuild our military to meet future conflicts. But I will also renew the tough, direct diplomacy that can prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. I will build new partnerships to defeat the threats of the 21st century: terrorism and nuclear proliferation; poverty and genocide; climate change and disease. And I will restore our moral standing so that America is once more the last, best hope for all who are called to the cause of freedom, who long for lives of peace, and who yearn for a better future.”

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Posted by FleshPresser at 7:14 PM /


Tuesday, June 03, 2008


History Made Tonight!


Congratulations to Barack Obama, the undisputed Democratic Nominee for President of the United States! He has achieved what no other African-American in our country has ever achieved, and history has been made... Hallelujah!

Here is a preview of the comments he will make in Minnepolis later tonight:
Tonight, after fifty-four hard-fought contests, our primary season has finally come to an end.

Sixteen months have passed since we first stood together on the steps of the Old State Capitol in Springfield, Illinois. Thousands of miles have been traveled. Millions of voices have been heard. And because of what you said -- because you decided that change must come to Washington; because you believed that this year must be different than all the rest; because you chose to listen not to your doubts or your fears but to your greatest hopes and highest aspirations, tonight we mark the end of one historic journey with the beginning of another -- a journey that will bring a new and better day to America.
Tonight, I can stand before you and say that I will be the Democratic nominee for President of the United States.


I want to thank every American who stood with us over the course of this campaign -- through the good days and the bad; from the snows of Cedar Rapids to the sunshine of Sioux Falls. And tonight I also want to thank the men and woman who took this journey with me as fellow candidates for President.

At this defining moment for our nation, we should be proud that our party put forth one of the most talented, qualified field of individuals ever to run for this office. I have not just competed with them as rivals, I have learned from them as friends, as public servants, and as patriots who love America and are willing to work tirelessly to make this country better. They are leaders of this party, and leaders that America will turn to for years to come.

That is particularly true for the candidate who has traveled further on this journey than anyone else. Senator Hillary Clinton has made history in this campaign not just because she's a woman who has done what no woman has done before, but because she's a leader who inspires millions of Americans with her strength, her courage, and her commitment to the causes that brought us here tonight.

We've certainly had our differences over the last sixteen months. But as someone who's shared a stage with her many times, I can tell you that what gets Hillary Clinton up in the morning -- even in the face of tough odds -- is exactly what sent her and Bill Clinton to sign up for their first campaign in Texas all those years ago; what sent her to work at the Children's Defense Fund and made her fight for health care as First Lady; what led her to the United States Senate and fueled her barrier-breaking campaign for the presidency -- an unyielding desire to improve the lives of ordinary Americans, no matter how difficult the fight may be. And you can rest assured that when we finally win the battle for universal health care in this country, she will be central to that victory. When we transform our energy policy and lift our children out of poverty, it will be because she worked to help make it happen. Our party and our country are better off because of her, and I am a better candidate for having had the honor to compete with Hillary Rodham Clinton.

There are those who say that this primary has somehow left us weaker and more divided. Well I say that because of this primary, there are millions of Americans who have cast their ballot for the very first time. There are Independents and Republicans who understand that this election isn't just about the party in charge of Washington, it's about the need to change Washington.Ê There are young people, and African-Americans, and Latinos, and women of all ages who have voted in numbers that have broken records and inspired a nation.

All of you chose to support a candidate you believe in deeply. But at the end of the day, we aren't the reason you came out and waited in lines that stretched block after block to make your voice heard. You didn't do that because of me or Senator Clinton or anyone else. You did it because you know in your hearts that at this moment -- a moment that will define a generation -- we cannot afford to keep doing what we've been doing. We owe our children a better future. We owe our country a better future. And for all those who dream of that future tonight, I say -- let us begin the work together. Let us unite in common effort to chart a new course for America.

In just a few short months, the Republican Party will arrive in St. Paul with a very different agenda. They will come here to nominate John McCain, a man who has served this country heroically. I honor that service, and I respect his many accomplishments, even if he chooses to deny mine. My differences with him are not personal; they are with the policies he has proposed in this campaign.

Because while John McCain can legitimately tout moments of independence from his party in the past, such independence has not been the hallmark of his presidential campaign.

It's not change when John McCain decided to stand with George Bush ninety-five percent of the time, as he did in the Senate last year.

It's not change when he offers four more years of Bush economic policies that have failed to create well-paying jobs, or insure our workers, or help Americans afford the skyrocketing cost of college -- policies that have lowered the real incomes of the average American family, widened the gap between Wall Street and Main Street, and left our children with a mountain of debt.

And it's not change when he promises to continue a policy in Iraq that asks everything of our brave men and women in uniform and nothing of Iraqi politicians -- a policy where all we look for are reasons to stay in Iraq, while we spend billions of dollars a month on a war that isn't making the American people any safer.

So I'll say this -- there are many words to describe John McCain's attempt to pass off his embrace of George Bush's policies as bipartisan and new. But change is not one of them.

Change is a foreign policy that doesn't begin and end with a war that should've never been authorized and never been waged. I won't stand here and pretend that there are many good options left in Iraq, but what's not an option is leaving our troops in that country for the next hundred years -- especially at a time when our military is overstretched, our nation is isolated, and nearly every other threat to America is being ignored.

We must be as careful getting out of Iraq as we were careless getting in - but start leaving we must. It's time for Iraqis to take responsibility for their future. It's time to rebuild our military and give our veterans the care they need and the benefits they deserve when they come home. It's time to refocus our efforts on al Qaeda's leadership and Afghanistan, and rally the world against the common threats of the 21st century -- terrorism and nuclear weapons; climate change and poverty; genocide and disease. That's what change is.

Change is realizing that meeting today's threats requires not just our firepower, but the power of our diplomacy -- tough, direct diplomacy where the President of the United States isn't afraid to let any petty dictator know where America stands and what we stand for. We must once again have the courage and conviction to lead the free world. That is the legacy of Roosevelt, and Truman, and Kennedy. That's what the American people want. That's what change is.

Change is building an economy that rewards not just wealth, but the work and workers who created it. It's understanding that the struggles facing working families can't be solved by spending billions of dollars on more tax breaks for big corporations and wealthy CEOs, but by giving a the middle-class a tax break, and investing in our crumbling infrastructure, and transforming how we use energy, and improving our schools, and renewing our commitment to science and innovation. It's understanding that fiscal responsibility and shared prosperity can go hand-in-hand, as they did when Bill Clinton was President.

John McCain has spent a lot of time talking about trips to Iraq in the last few weeks, but maybe if he spent some time taking trips to the cities and towns that have been hardest hit by this economy -- cities in Michigan, and Ohio, and right here in Minnesota -- he'd understand the kind of change that people are looking for.

Maybe if he went to Iowa and met the student who works the night shift after a full day of class and still can't pay the medical bills for a sister who's ill, he'd understand that she can't afford four more years of a health care plan that only takes care of the healthy and wealthy. She needs us to pass health care plan that guarantees insurance to every American who wants it and brings down premiums for every family who needs it. That's the change we need.

Maybe if he went to Pennsylvania and met the man who lost his job but can't even afford the gas to drive around and look for a new one, he'd understand that we can't afford four more years of our addiction to oil from dictators. That man needs us to pass an energy policy that works with automakers to raise fuel standards, and makes corporations pay for their pollution, and oil companies invest their record profits in a clean energy future -- an energy policy that will create millions of new jobs that pay well and can't be outsourced. That's the change we need.

And maybe if he spent some time in the schools of South Carolina or St. Paul or where he spoke tonight in New Orleans, he'd understand that we can't afford to leave the money behind for No Child Left Behind; that we owe it to our children to invest in early childhood education; to recruit an army of new teachers and give them better pay and more support; to finally decide that in this global economy, the chance to get a college education should not be a privilege for the wealthy few, but the birthright of every American. That's the change we need in America. That's why I'm running for President.

The other side will come here in September and offer a very different set of policies and positions, and that is a debate I look forward to. It is a debate the American people deserve. But what you don't deserve is another election that's governed by fear, and innuendo, and division. What you won't hear from this campaign or this party is the kind of politics that uses religion as a wedge, and patriotism as a bludgeon -- that sees our opponents not as competitors to challenge, but enemies to demonize. Because we may call ourselves Democrats and Republicans, but we are Americans first. We are always Americans first.

Despite what the good Senator from Arizona said tonight, I have seen people of differing views and opinions find common cause many times during my two decades in public life, and I have brought many together myself. I've walked arm-in-arm with community leaders on the South Side of Chicago and watched tensions fade as black, white, and Latino fought together for good jobs and good schools. I've sat across the table from law enforcement and civil rights advocates to reform a criminal justice system that sent thirteen innocent people to death row. And I've worked with friends in the other party to provide more children with health insurance and more working families with a tax break; to curb the spread of nuclear weapons and ensure that the American people know where their tax dollars are being spent; and to reduce the influence of lobbyists who have all too often set the agenda in Washington.

In our country, I have found that this cooperation happens not because we agree on everything, but because behind all the labels and false divisions and categories that define us; beyond all the petty bickering and point-scoring in Washington, Americans are a decent, generous, compassionate people, united by common challenges and common hopes. And every so often, there are moments which call on that fundamental goodness to make this country great again.

So it was for that band of patriots who declared in a Philadelphia hall the formation of a more perfect union; and for all those who gave on the fields of Gettysburg and Antietam their last full measure of devotion to save that same union.

So it was for the Greatest Generation that conquered fear itself, and liberated a continent from tyranny, and made this country home to untold opportunity and prosperity.

So it was for the workers who stood out on the picket lines; the women who shattered glass ceilings; the children who braved a Selma bridge for freedom's cause.

So it has been for every generation that faced down the greatest challenges and the most improbable odds to leave their children a world that's better, and kinder, and more just.

And so it must be for us.

America, this is our moment. This is our time. Our time to turn the page on the policies of the past. Our time to bring new energy and new ideas to the challenges we face. Our time to offer a new direction for the country we love.

The journey will be difficult. The road will be long. I face this challenge with profound humility, and knowledge of my own limitations. But I also face it with limitless faith in the capacity of the American people. Because if we are willing to work for it, and fight for it, and believe in it, then I am absolutely certain that generations from now, we will be able to look back and tell our children that this was the moment when we began to provide care for the sick and good jobs to the jobless; this was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal; this was the moment when we ended a war and secured our nation and restored our image as the last, best hope on Earth. This was the moment -- this was the time -- when we came together to remake this great nation so that it may always reflect our very best selves, and our highest ideals. Thank you, God Bless you, and may God Bless the United States of America.

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Posted by FleshPresser at 8:12 PM /


Wednesday, February 06, 2008


LIVE BLOGGING - A Little Past Super Tuesday


Thus far (as of midnight), here's how the states have gone:

BARACK OBAMA:
Alabama - 56% - 42%
Alaska - 72% - 27%
Colorado - 66% - 33%
Connecticut - 50% - 47%
Delaware - 53% - 42%
Georgia - 65% - 32%
Idaho - 81% - 15%
Illinois - 64% - 33%
Kansas - 73% - 27%
Minnesota - 67% - 32%
Missouri - 49% - 48%
North Dakota - 61% - 37%
Utah - 54% - 40%

HILLARY CLINTON:
Arizona - 50% - 41%
Arkansas - 72% - 23%
California - 55% - 33%
Massachusetts - 56% - 41%
New York - 57% - 40%
New Jersey - 54% - 44%
Oklahoma - 55% - 31%
Tennessee - 54% - 41%
What does all of this mean? Well, a few things. Honestly, I don't see how anyone could honestly say that Clinton comes out of Super Tuesday with the "winning momentum." Simply by not being defeated by Obama, the Clinton campaign has declared the day a "win."

I imagined that California would be closer that it appears right now, but I also imagine that the end numbers will tighten up significantly prior to the final tally. It's also important to note that the Clinton win is not surprising, given that there was a SIGNIFICANT amount of early votes in the state - votes cast prior to the latest Obama surge.

Clinton won Arkansas and New York (the benefit of having two "home states"), but with the exception of her "prior home state" of Arkansas, she never rises higher than the mid-50s, meaning that in a system where proportional assignment of delegates takes place, Obama remained close, and will receive significant piles of delegates in each of these states.

Meanwhile, look at some of the numbers for Obama... 66% in Colorado... 73% in Kansas... 81% in Idaho. In a lot of the states where Obama won, he claimed victory by significant margins.

Think about this, as well. A few weeks ago, the Clinton camp never even dreamed that her closest competition would be this close. Moving forward, Obama is going to have a SIGNIFICANT advantage in the money race moving forward. In a Super Tuesday-style primary, the candidate with a "national name" always maintains an advantage in trying to cover all of the states across the country in a matter of days.

Now, the race shifts. The primary season moves back to a series of smaller primaries, which will absolutely favor Obama. In addition, the upcoming primaries will all favor Obama in the next three to four weeks.

Clinton did not win tonight. Simply by listening to the pundits talk about the wins in California and New York as "news" is significant to the Obama campaign. At this point, I would be VERY concerned if I was in the Clinton campaign.

Obama has won states throughout the United States - from Alaska to Delaware, from Minnesota to Georgia. And simply by looking at the number of states won by Obama versus Clinton, there's no question that CHANGE is on the way!

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Posted by FleshPresser at 12:06 AM /


Tuesday, February 05, 2008


LIVE BLOGGING SUPER TUESDAY


So, I've been in rehearsal for a show right now, which is why I've failed to follow up here on Barack Obama's stunning win in South Carolina, the seemingly odd timing of John Edwards' departure from the race, or any number of stories that have come and gone since then.

I have yet to even officially write my activist endorsement of Barack Obama yet, but it WILL be forthcoming.

I even have a strange scenario floating around in my head right now, which remains consistent with polls as they stand right now, which sees Barack Obama clinching the nomination tonight.... OK, so it's a bit far-fetched... but so was the New York Giants upset over the New England Patriots, right? And given the results of New Hampshire, anything is possible these days.

Briefly, the scenario involves Obama winning California, taking at least 40% of the vote in New York, taking his home state of Illinois, winning Massachusetts (not terribly difficult to imagine given endorsements by Kerry and the Kennedy clan), making at least a strong showing in New Jersey and Connecticut, and winning BIG in states like Georgia.

I'll go into more detail about this later.... the real point of this post is to let you know that I'll be LiveBlogging results tonight - probably some time after 10:00PM Eastern.

So, hang with Keith and Chris until then, and I'll see you later tonight!

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Posted by FleshPresser at 6:35 PM /


Friday, January 25, 2008


Shades of This Week?


This is one of the funnier political videos I've seen in a while, and I thought I'd share...

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Posted by FleshPresser at 4:52 PM /



Obama Leads Going Into South Carolina Primary...


Despite all of the negative campaigning and attacks from the Clinton campaign over the last several days (or maybe because of them), Barack Obama is maintaining a 13 point lead over Clinton as tomorrow's South Carolina Democratic primary approaches.

What's even more exciting to me is that John Edwards' support is slowly creeping up, with indications that a second place finish would be possible for him tomorrow. I think that it would serve as a strong message for Clinton to be repaid with a third place finish for way the campaign has conducted themselves in recent days.

I'd love to reprint the entire endorsement from South Carolina's newspaper, The State, but I'll just share a brief portion of it, and you can read the rest of it on their website:
The restoration of the Clintons to the White House would trigger a new wave of all-out political warfare....Hillary Clinton doesn’t pretend that it won’t happen; she simply vows to persevere, in the hope that her side can win....

Sen. Obama’s campaign is an argument for a more unifying style of leadership. In a time of great partisanship, he is careful to talk about winning over independents and even Republicans. He is harsh on the failures of the current administration - and most of that critique well-deserved. But he doesn’t use his considerable rhetorical gifts to demonize Republicans. He’s not neglecting his core values; he defends his progressive vision with vigorous integrity. But for him, American unity - transcending party - is a core value in itself.

Sen. Obama would also have the best chance to repair the damage to America’s global reputation.... Sen. Obama is the only Democrat who plausibly can say that he wants to work with Americans across the political spectrum to address such subjects - and he has the integrity and the skills of persuasion that make him the best-qualified among the remaining Democratic hopefuls to address these challenges.

He would be a groundbreaking nominee. More to the point, he makes a solid case that he is ready to lead the whole country. We see Sen. Barack Obama as the best choice in Saturday’s Democratic primary.

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Posted by FleshPresser at 4:02 PM /



Rezko-nize THIS Face?


During the last Democratic debate in South Carolina, Hillary Clinton accused Barack Obama of aiding Tony Rezko "...when you were practicing law and representing your contributor ... in his slum landlord business in inner city Chicago." Although many various sources have indicated that Obama never DIRECTLY represented Rezko, the Clinton camp continues to pound at the issue, feeding it to the media.

Well, as is typically proven, that kharma is a bitch. Today, photos surface of Tony Rezko with the Clintons.

While Clinton denies knowing Rezko, it is plain and obvious that he at least had access to the Clinton White House.

I wonder if we'll see a picture of Obama and Norman Hsu appear? Somehow, I'm thinking not.

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Posted by FleshPresser at 10:24 AM /


Wednesday, January 09, 2008


Culinary Workers Endorse Obama


As anticipated, both the Culinary Workers Union in Nevada and it's parent, UNITE HERE, have endorsed Barack Obama. Obama also received the endoresement of Service Employees International Union (SEIU) Nevada today.

These are HUGE victories for Obama heading into Nevada, and a serious blow to Clinton and, more critically, to Edwards. Edwards has been alligning himself with labor and to fail to receive an endorsement like this is another major disappointment.

The Culinary Workers endorsement, as well as SEIU's, guarantee a groundswell of organizers for the Nevada caucus, which is to be held in ten days. The caucus takes place during the day on the Saturday of the weekend of Martin Luther King, Jr. Day. In addition, this is the first time that Nevada is holding a precinct caucus, and as such, attendance is projected to be around 45,000 - or 10% of the state's registered Democratic population.

A union membership of over 60,000 floods the odds in Obama's favor, then.... and provides organized help on the ground at a critical point.

Add to this that Obama's campaign is taking in an average of $1 million a DAY in January thus far, including $500,000 since the end of the election last night.

All in all, not bad for the day after an "alleged loss" to Clinton in New Hampshire (I'm still being snarky - technically, when it comes down to delegate counts, they tied.) - Obama heads into both Nevada and South Carolina in a very strong position.

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Posted by FleshPresser at 3:32 PM /



LiveBlogging: New Hampshire Results


Wow.

I'm reminded of two quotations. The first is attributed to Mark Twain:


"Rumors of my demise are greatly exaggerated."


The other is a line from Matt Damon in Good Will Hunting (although I'm sure it didn't originate in this film):

"You like apples?
How about DEM apples!"

I had rehearsal this evening, and so I didn't get back until just recently, and honestly wasn't too terribly interested in rushing home, as I was pretty damned sure that I knew what the outcome was going to be.

I'm not sure if it's the Clinton campaign that needs to be congratulated for a seemingly impossible and implausible win in New Hampshire this evening, or if it's the polling industry that needs to be trashed and told never to speak again.

Probably a hearty dose of both.

If Iowa was a remarkable and historic night for Barack Obama, then surely the same must be said of Hillary Clinton's win this evening in New Hampshire. To tell the truth, I'm not even sure that the Clinton campaign KNOWS what they did right tonight - not that they're going to argue with the results, of course.

The Clinton campaign had INTERNAL polling numbers that suggested they were going to lose by eleven points. The Obama campaign had INTERNAL numbers that suggested that they were going to win by fourteen. The Clinton campaign had been discussing whether they were going to announce changes to their campaign staff prior to the loss, or tomorrow - after the loss.

These, my friends, are not pundits speaking, or media-driven polls. These are all FACTS from within the campaigns themselves.

So, what the hell happened? I'm not even going to hazard a guess, nor do I want to listen to any of the pundits on this one in terms of their "expertise" - clearly, they KNEW that Obama was going to win tonight.

I do know this much - Hillary Clinton is a better candidate for having weathered this storm, and gaining this crucial victory. And Barack Obama is going to be a stronger candidate having this "alleged victory" taken away from him.

Earlier today (if you watched the Russert clip I posted earlier today, you already heard this), the Culinary Workers union in Nevada (the state's largest union presence) was set to announce their endorsement of Obama on Wednesday morning, which would all but hand the victory in Nevada to Obama. Tonight, that endorsement looks to be hanging neutral once more, at least until later in the week if not later.

So, while New Hampshire and Nevada seemed to be locked up this afternoon, it now appears that everything is in play once again.

If you're a political junkie/nerd like I am, then you're probably feeling the same way I am right now.... The next couple of days and weeks are going to be pretty damned amazing, given the surprising events of the last week.

And if you want to get a little snarky about it, go talk to your colleagues about it like this - Obama and Clinton realistically tied. Although Clinton took more of the popular vote, they both wind up with nine delegates a piece. So there. :)

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Posted by FleshPresser at 12:07 AM /


Tuesday, January 08, 2008


It's New Hampshire's Turn...


By now, it appears that all of the mystery has been taken out of the results of this election - at least on the Democratic side. The biggest question is not whether or not Obama will win, but by how many points. In addition, it will be interesting to see how many Independents play on the side of the Democrats, rather than the Republicans - this would have a pretty significant effect on McCain's showing today.

We'll bring results later this evening as they come in, and do some analysis and punditry as always. In the meantime, here's some talk from Russert from this morning on the topic - please ignore Joe Scarborough, who I tend to dislike, as well as the "ohhhh nooooo" woman sitting by his side.

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Posted by FleshPresser at 4:23 PM /


Monday, January 07, 2008


The Eve Of New Hampshire....


True... it's still too early to crown a victor for the Democratic party primary race. But on this day before the New Hampshire primary, the writing is starting to appear on the wall, and I'm liking what it says:

American Research Group (based in Manchester, NH) shows Obama over Clinton by a margin of 11 percent... 39% - 28%. As was the case in Iowa, Obama is carrying the youth vote (here widely defined as 18-64), by a margin of 21%. Those 65 and over prefer Clinton by almost the same margin. What's more interesting, however, is the breakdown according to gender. Not surprisingly, Obama and Edwards both lead Clinton among male voters. Women, however, also favor Obama over Clinton - 35%-34% - while 21% lean toward Edwards. Perhaps the most important indicator of success in the general election, however, is the independent voting block. Here, Obama enjoys a 47%-25% margin over Edwards.

Rasmussen Reports shows Obama over Clinton with a ten-point lead... 38%-28%. Edwards continues to hang on, with 18%. Rasmussen points out the same signifier - Clinton and Obama are largely even among Democrats, but Obama has a 2-1 lead over Clinton among Independents.

A Gallup poll shows Obama leading New Hampshire, with a 41%-28% margin over Clinton. Edwards maintains 19% of the vote. Gallup's report points out that the biggest jump in the numbers came when Democrats were asked who "has the best chance of beating the Republican in November." In mid-December, Clinton led on this question by 21 points. Today, Obama leads in this category by 11 points. Obama went up 19 points after the Iowa win, while Clinton lost 13 points.

A couple of other random thoughts here... it's become apparent that the race is largely a two-person race, between Obama and Clinton. The next two in line, however, seemed to have alligned themselves. Edwards has clearly taken a place behind Obama's shoulder, coming down on the side of change. Richardson, meanwhile, is doing everything possible to climb inside Clinton's side pocket. It is not clear that Edwards or Richardson have a clear shot at a veep slot, but it's worth taking note.

In my opinion, here's a telling sign of where the election is heading. To combat the "message of change," Clinton has been attacking Obama by encouraging people not to be swept up by "false hopes." Yesterday, during the debate in New Hampshire, she stopped a conversation between Obama and Edwards to encourage that they get a "reality check."

Obama, on Good Morning America today, addressed Clinton very simply, stating "I mean, you can picture JFK saying, 'we can't go to the moon, it's a false hope. Let's get a reality check.' It's not, sort of, I think, what our tradition has been."

True... it's still too early to crown a victor for the Democratic party primary race. But here are a few interesting facts. In 2004, John Kerry won the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary, and went on to win the Democratic nomination. In 2000, Al Gore won the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary and went on to win the Democratic nomination. We'll see what happens in 2008 if Barack Obama wins both Iowa and New Hampshire.

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Posted by FleshPresser at 11:16 AM /