Wednesday, February 06, 2008

LIVE BLOGGING - A Little Past Super Tuesday

Thus far (as of midnight), here's how the states have gone:

Alabama - 56% - 42%
Alaska - 72% - 27%
Colorado - 66% - 33%
Connecticut - 50% - 47%
Delaware - 53% - 42%
Georgia - 65% - 32%
Idaho - 81% - 15%
Illinois - 64% - 33%
Kansas - 73% - 27%
Minnesota - 67% - 32%
Missouri - 49% - 48%
North Dakota - 61% - 37%
Utah - 54% - 40%

Arizona - 50% - 41%
Arkansas - 72% - 23%
California - 55% - 33%
Massachusetts - 56% - 41%
New York - 57% - 40%
New Jersey - 54% - 44%
Oklahoma - 55% - 31%
Tennessee - 54% - 41%
What does all of this mean? Well, a few things. Honestly, I don't see how anyone could honestly say that Clinton comes out of Super Tuesday with the "winning momentum." Simply by not being defeated by Obama, the Clinton campaign has declared the day a "win."

I imagined that California would be closer that it appears right now, but I also imagine that the end numbers will tighten up significantly prior to the final tally. It's also important to note that the Clinton win is not surprising, given that there was a SIGNIFICANT amount of early votes in the state - votes cast prior to the latest Obama surge.

Clinton won Arkansas and New York (the benefit of having two "home states"), but with the exception of her "prior home state" of Arkansas, she never rises higher than the mid-50s, meaning that in a system where proportional assignment of delegates takes place, Obama remained close, and will receive significant piles of delegates in each of these states.

Meanwhile, look at some of the numbers for Obama... 66% in Colorado... 73% in Kansas... 81% in Idaho. In a lot of the states where Obama won, he claimed victory by significant margins.

Think about this, as well. A few weeks ago, the Clinton camp never even dreamed that her closest competition would be this close. Moving forward, Obama is going to have a SIGNIFICANT advantage in the money race moving forward. In a Super Tuesday-style primary, the candidate with a "national name" always maintains an advantage in trying to cover all of the states across the country in a matter of days.

Now, the race shifts. The primary season moves back to a series of smaller primaries, which will absolutely favor Obama. In addition, the upcoming primaries will all favor Obama in the next three to four weeks.

Clinton did not win tonight. Simply by listening to the pundits talk about the wins in California and New York as "news" is significant to the Obama campaign. At this point, I would be VERY concerned if I was in the Clinton campaign.

Obama has won states throughout the United States - from Alaska to Delaware, from Minnesota to Georgia. And simply by looking at the number of states won by Obama versus Clinton, there's no question that CHANGE is on the way!

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Posted by FleshPresser at 12:06 AM /


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