LiveBlogging: New Hampshire Results

Wow.

I'm reminded of two quotations. The first is attributed to Mark Twain:


"Rumors of my demise are greatly exaggerated."

The other is a line from Matt Damon in Good Will Hunting (although I'm sure it didn't originate in this film):

"You like apples?
How about DEM apples!"
I had rehearsal this evening, and so I didn't get back until just recently, and honestly wasn't too terribly interested in rushing home, as I was pretty damned sure that I knew what the outcome was going to be.

I'm not sure if it's the Clinton campaign that needs to be congratulated for a seemingly impossible and implausible win in New Hampshire this evening, or if it's the polling industry that needs to be trashed and told never to speak again.

Probably a hearty dose of both.

If Iowa was a remarkable and historic night for Barack Obama, then surely the same must be said of Hillary Clinton's win this evening in New Hampshire. To tell the truth, I'm not even sure that the Clinton campaign KNOWS what they did right tonight - not that they're going to argue with the results, of course.

The Clinton campaign had INTERNAL polling numbers that suggested they were going to lose by eleven points. The Obama campaign had INTERNAL numbers that suggested that they were going to win by fourteen. The Clinton campaign had been discussing whether they were going to announce changes to their campaign staff prior to the loss, or tomorrow - after the loss.

These, my friends, are not pundits speaking, or media-driven polls. These are all FACTS from within the campaigns themselves.

So, what the hell happened? I'm not even going to hazard a guess, nor do I want to listen to any of the pundits on this one in terms of their "expertise" - clearly, they KNEW that Obama was going to win tonight.

I do know this much - Hillary Clinton is a better candidate for having weathered this storm, and gaining this crucial victory. And Barack Obama is going to be a stronger candidate having this "alleged victory" taken away from him.

Earlier today (if you watched the Russert clip I posted earlier today, you already heard this), the Culinary Workers union in Nevada (the state's largest union presence) was set to announce their endorsement of Obama on Wednesday morning, which would all but hand the victory in Nevada to Obama. Tonight, that endorsement looks to be hanging neutral once more, at least until later in the week if not later.

So, while New Hampshire and Nevada seemed to be locked up this afternoon, it now appears that everything is in play once again.

If you're a political junkie/nerd like I am, then you're probably feeling the same way I am right now.... The next couple of days and weeks are going to be pretty damned amazing, given the surprising events of the last week.

And if you want to get a little snarky about it, go talk to your colleagues about it like this - Obama and Clinton realistically tied. Although Clinton took more of the popular vote, they both wind up with nine delegates a piece. So there. :)

Labels: 2008, Blog The Vote, Clinton, Democrat, election, New Hampshire, Obama

Posted by FleshPresser at 12:07 AM /

Tuesday, January 08, 2008

It's New Hampshire's Turn...

By now, it appears that all of the mystery has been taken out of the results of this election - at least on the Democratic side. The biggest question is not whether or not Obama will win, but by how many points. In addition, it will be interesting to see how many Independents play on the side of the Democrats, rather than the Republicans - this would have a pretty significant effect on McCain's showing today.

We'll bring results later this evening as they come in, and do some analysis and punditry as always. In the meantime, here's some talk from Russert from this morning on the topic - please ignore Joe Scarborough, who I tend to dislike, as well as the "ohhhh nooooo" woman sitting by his side.

Labels: 2008, Blog The Vote, Clinton, Democrat, election, New Hampshire, Obama, Russert

Posted by FleshPresser at 4:23 PM /

Monday, January 07, 2008

PTF's Handmade Political Cartoons: CHANGE

Labels: 2008, Blog The Vote, cartoons, Clinton, New Hampshire

Posted by FleshPresser at 1:59 PM /

Clips From The New Hampshire Debate

Posted by FleshPresser at 11:38 AM /

The Eve Of New Hampshire....

True... it's still too early to crown a victor for the Democratic party primary race. But on this day before the New Hampshire primary, the writing is starting to appear on the wall, and I'm liking what it says:

American Research Group (based in Manchester, NH) shows Obama over Clinton by a margin of 11 percent... 39% - 28%. As was the case in Iowa, Obama is carrying the youth vote (here widely defined as 18-64), by a margin of 21%. Those 65 and over prefer Clinton by almost the same margin. What's more interesting, however, is the breakdown according to gender. Not surprisingly, Obama and Edwards both lead Clinton among male voters. Women, however, also favor Obama over Clinton - 35%-34% - while 21% lean toward Edwards. Perhaps the most important indicator of success in the general election, however, is the independent voting block. Here, Obama enjoys a 47%-25% margin over Edwards.

Rasmussen Reports shows Obama over Clinton with a ten-point lead... 38%-28%. Edwards continues to hang on, with 18%. Rasmussen points out the same signifier - Clinton and Obama are largely even among Democrats, but Obama has a 2-1 lead over Clinton among Independents.

A Gallup poll shows Obama leading New Hampshire, with a 41%-28% margin over Clinton. Edwards maintains 19% of the vote. Gallup's report points out that the biggest jump in the numbers came when Democrats were asked who "has the best chance of beating the Republican in November." In mid-December, Clinton led on this question by 21 points. Today, Obama leads in this category by 11 points. Obama went up 19 points after the Iowa win, while Clinton lost 13 points.

A couple of other random thoughts here... it's become apparent that the race is largely a two-person race, between Obama and Clinton. The next two in line, however, seemed to have alligned themselves. Edwards has clearly taken a place behind Obama's shoulder, coming down on the side of change. Richardson, meanwhile, is doing everything possible to climb inside Clinton's side pocket. It is not clear that Edwards or Richardson have a clear shot at a veep slot, but it's worth taking note.

In my opinion, here's a telling sign of where the election is heading. To combat the "message of change," Clinton has been attacking Obama by encouraging people not to be swept up by "false hopes." Yesterday, during the debate in New Hampshire, she stopped a conversation between Obama and Edwards to encourage that they get a "reality check."

Obama, on Good Morning America today, addressed Clinton very simply, stating "I mean, you can picture JFK saying, 'we can't go to the moon, it's a false hope. Let's get a reality check.' It's not, sort of, I think, what our tradition has been."

True... it's still too early to crown a victor for the Democratic party primary race. But here are a few interesting facts. In 2004, John Kerry won the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary, and went on to win the Democratic nomination. In 2000, Al Gore won the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary and went on to win the Democratic nomination. We'll see what happens in 2008 if Barack Obama wins both Iowa and New Hampshire.

Labels: 2008, Blog The Vote, Clinton, Democrat, Edwards, election, New Hampshire, Obama

Posted by FleshPresser at 11:16 AM /